Default probability estimation via pair copula constructions
نویسندگان
چکیده
In this paper we present a novel Bayesian approach for default probability estimation. The methodology is based on multivariate contingent claim analysis and pair copula theory. Balance sheet data are used to asses the firm value and to compute its default probability. The firm pricing function is obtained via a pair copula approach, and Monte Carlo simulations are used to calculate the default probability distribution. The methodology is illustrated through an application to defaulted firms data.
منابع مشابه
Analysis of Dependency Structure of Default Processes Based on Bayesian Copula
One of the main problems in credit risk management is the correlated default. In large portfolios, computing the default dependencies among issuers is an essential part in quantifying the portfolio's credit. The most important problems related to credit risk management are understanding the complex dependence structure of the associated variables and lacking the data. This paper aims at introdu...
متن کاملCDO Parameters Estimation Using Market Prices
In this paper, we address the crucial problems of parameters estimation of Collateralized Debt Obligation (CDO). We present a methodology for fair spread estimation of reconstituted (CDO) from European market data. A fundamental part of the pricing framework is the estimation of default probabilities and the structure of dependency. We present a copula based simulation procedure for pricing CDO...
متن کاملOn the singular components of a copula
We analyze copulas with a non-trivial singular component by using their Markov kernel representation. In particular, we provide existence results for copulas with a prescribed singular component. The constructions do not only help to deal with problems related to multivariate stochastic systems of lifetimes when joint defaults can occur with a non-zero probability, but even provide a copula max...
متن کاملBayesian inference for multivariate copulas using pair-copula constructions
This article provides a Bayesian analysis of pair-copula constructions (Aas et al., 2007 Insurance Math. Econom.) for modeling multivariate dependence structures. These constructions are based on bivariate t−copulas as building blocks and can model the nature of extremal events in bivariate margins individually. According to recent empirical studies (Fischer et al. (2007) and Berg and Aas (2007...
متن کاملNonparametric estimation of pair-copula constructions with the empirical pair-copula
A pair-copula construction is a decomposition of a multivariate copula into a structured system, called regular vine, of bivariate copulae or pair-copulae. The standard practice is to model these pair-copulae parametri-cally, which comes at the cost of a large model risk, with errors propagating throughout the vine structure. The empirical pair-copula proposed in the paper provides a nonparamet...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید
ثبت ناماگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید
ورودعنوان ژورنال:
- European Journal of Operational Research
دوره 249 شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2016